In the constantly evolving panorama of the global landscape, demographic shifts are as enigmatic as they are impactful. It's a testament to the way socio-economic factors, interspersed with the elements of technological prowess and political narratives, alter the population mosaic.
Notably, since 2020, we are witnessing an intriguing shift. Once crowded with optimism and opportunities, states like California and New York are now seeing a decline in population, whereas southern states, such as Texas, are attracting a surge of newcomers. While many attribute this demographic upheaval to politically charged discussions and ideologies, an underlying economic transition is actually the principal impetus.
We will delve into the heart of this shift and explore the possibilities it may unfurl for the cities of the future.
Case from California State
Since 2020, California and New York are losing population. On the other hand, the southern states like Texas are booming with newcomers. The popular political narrative has been political discourse such as woke, but there's an underlying economic shift. California has long been the economic engine of US economy since 1999s internet bubble. New York has been the hub for finance. They're both scalable businesses with handful of people can build a global companies with instant reach.
But even with multinationals like Google, Facebook, and Apple, companies which every country envy, had been not enough to support their growing California population of 40 million. They are famously known for large homeless problems and low quality of public services.
From the fact that Apple's market cap of $2.8 trillion is as large as French GDP, you can imagine any country would gain more than sufficinet wealth by having one Apple Inc. Since California has a few Apple level multinationals, let's say each Apple can support 10 million size population.
Apple + Google + Facebook + Intel / 40 million
That size analogy fits with Singaporian population of 5 million people that is oriented towards high-value added information industry.
The Future City: Smaller, Not Larger
As advancements in A.I. and technology reshape our society, we may see a significant shift in population sizes of cities. Just as Singapore and Switzerland have managed to thrive with their respective populations of 5 million and 8 million, future, technologically advanced societies may possibly sustenance on similar numbers. However, as we explore and mature in various technological domains such as mobility, online communication, education, and robotics, we might be able to sustain societies with larger populations. The magic number is not 300 million, but perhaps closer to 50 million. A smaller, more manageable population might be the way forward.
Examining the Case for Britain and Japan
Certain countries are leading the way in maintaining a balanced population size. Japan could stand to decrease its population to around 30 million, while the UK may already be too populated to sustain comfortable living. It could be helpful to look at Germany’s diversified way of managing population density, spread over various cities – a methodology could be adopted and tweaked by other countries too.
What's common across all developed countries are that they grew out of manufacturing boom in the 20th century. As automation becomes common, a country cannot support that large number of wealthy population beyond 40 million.
Rethinking Metrics and Cityscape Measurements
The question of overpopulation needs to be addressed using more specific metrics than mere population numbers. For instance, in many metros, the sheer number of high-rise buildings could be a telltale sign of a city's capacity. The rise in condos in downtown Toronto is a case in point. A greater emphasis on education, coupled with other amenities like restaurants and proximity to nature, could enhance the experience of city living.
As far as high-tech ecosystem goes, Mars was an interesting case study for building nearby competitive intellectuals. It sat right beside the University of Toronto, and I have been there multiple times for entrepreneurship events. But, they didn't have many partnership events with the academics. Nor, there were many offices in the neighbor for students to start a company. Most of all, other tech eco system was in King street west in a liberty village.
Consolidating Long-Term Growth - The Role of Ambition
Creating bustling city centers alone isn't enough. We need large, globally competitive businesses to support developed countries. What drives such businesses? Minimizing political interference could be one factor. But probably the most significant driver is ambition - the will to be competitive and become a global giant.
In a nutshell, the emergence of A.I. and information age is set to influence our population distribution, density, and cityscape substantially. We need to prepare for such changes and build our cities to adapt to this landscape while providing a holistic lifestyle for our citizens.