The Next 1947 Moment: From Anti-Colonial Independence to Today's Civilizational Uprising

by Masatoshi Nishimura

The 20th century witnessed one of history's most profound shifts: the end of Western colonialism. Today, we're on the cusp of another massive shift—one that could rewrite global power structures once more.

India's 1947 Independence: The Domino Effect of Decolonization

In 1947, India gained independence from British rule, marking a critical turning point in global history. Britain's retreat from its "jewel in the crown" triggered a cascade of independence movements across Asia and Africa:

  • India and Pakistan (1947): Violent partition marked a chaotic birth.
  • Indonesia (1949): Overcame Dutch colonialism after fierce resistance.
  • Vietnam (1954–1975): Decades of wars expelled French and then American forces.
  • Ghana (1957): Africa's wave of independence began.

This wasn't just political—it was psychological. The West was no longer invincible.

China's Rise: The New "1947" Moment

Fast forward to the 21st century, and China stands poised to potentially overtake the United States as the world's leading economic power. If realized, this shift will be our generation's "1947 moment": the symbolic tipping point where the global center of gravity decisively moves away from the West.

  • China (2010–present): Xi Jinping promotes a "China Dream," emphasizing a return to civilizational pride and global influence.
  • India (2014–present): Under Modi, India emphasizes Hindu civilization and self-reliance, becoming assertive in global diplomacy.
  • Turkey (2010–present): Erdogan revives Ottoman nostalgia, positioning Turkey as a regional power bridging East and West.
  • Iran (2000–present): Leverages ancient Persian pride and anti-Western rhetoric, asserting regional dominance.

Timeline to the Future: The Cycle of Civilizational Shift

Based on Ray Dalio's framework, civilizational cycles start with education, then technology and economy, and finally military power.

Japan's Timeline:

  • 1970: Japanese students began outperforming the West in international education.
  • 1980: Japan became technologically innovative (semiconductors, computers, fuel-efficient cars), triggering anti-Japan sentiment in the US.
  • 1990: Japan reached symbolic economic parity with the West (GDP per capita).

China's Timeline (projected):

  • 2009: China topped the PISA international education rankings, outperforming Western countries.
  • 2020: Western acknowledgment of Chinese technological advancement, evident through achievements like Nature Index leadership, DJI drones, Tiangong Space Station, and TikTok's popularity, sparking strong anti-China sentiment in the West.
  • 2030 (projected): China may achieve symbolic economic dominance, potentially marked by the weakening or dissolution of Western institutions such as the G7 or the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

Once Post-China symbolic win occurs, it'll trigger the 30 years of uprising countries to follow China model. They'll take an access to large market as hostage and take back the control over supply chain like data centers and manufacturing.

Implications for the Rising Powers: Opportunity Amid Chaos

Contrary to the popular sentiment that the rise of new global powers promises a bright and harmonious future, history warns us of significant dangers. The dissolution of the current world order may not usher in peaceful cooperation but instead trigger intense civilizational conflicts as emerging powers vie for dominance.

Historically, independence movements—such as India's violent partition in 1947, Indonesia's civil unrest against the Dutch, Malaysia's internal struggles, and Korea's division—demonstrate that periods of major geopolitical shifts often spark severe conflict.

However, unlike these historical examples, today's emerging powers may not primarily face internal fragmentation. Instead, the major risk lies in inter-state and inter-civilizational conflicts as powerful nations project their authoritarian and nationalist agendas outward onto neighboring regions.

The rising wave of nationalism and authoritarian governance, bolstered by strong civilizational narratives, could fuel expansive ambitions, intensifying tensions among rising powers themselves rather than within their borders. This potential scenario underscores not only the risks but also the necessity for careful diplomacy and strategic foresight amid an era of global realignment.

Implications for the Western World: Identity and Influence at Stake

As Britain experienced following the loss of India, the West may soon confront an identity crisis marked by severe internal challenges:

  • Civil Conflict: Western nations might increasingly fracture into competing political factions, reminiscent of the turbulence that characterized Latin American politics in the 1800s. This internal strife arises from a collapsing world order, both economically and symbolically, leaving citizens feeling disenfranchised and alienated from political processes.
  • Economic Decline (Equalization to the Globe): Rather than mere stagnation, Western economies could actively decline, aligning more closely with global economic standards and shifting economic dominance decisively eastward. This tangible economic downturn would reflect diminishing advantages previously enjoyed by Western societies.
  • Foreign Intervention as Norm: As governance becomes ineffective and unable to cope with internal divisions and declining infrastructure, foreign interventions—economic, political, and sometimes military—may become commonplace. Average citizens, enduring cycles of lofty political promises without meaningful change, might increasingly view external interference as both inevitable and emblematic of national decline.
  • Rising Crime Rates: Ineffective governance, combined with economic hardships, could lead to a pronounced increase in crime and social disorder. As governments fail to provide basic services and security, public trust deteriorates further, exacerbating instability and civil unrest.

A Future in Flux: Navigating the Next Era

This civilizational shift isn't smooth or predictable. History reminds us that massive geopolitical changes come with opportunity, chaos, and profound uncertainty.

Just as the independence movements of the 20th century reshaped our world dramatically, the current civilizational uprising led by China, India, Turkey, Iran, and others might define the next century in ways we can scarcely imagine.

The question isn't whether the shift is coming—it's already here—but how nations and individuals choose to respond.