The prevailing political and socio-cultural trends in a country often transform with changing demographics. A study of age-specific outlooks can help predict such shifts in future. This blog post aims to provide a glimpse into Japan's evolving perspective towards global giants - China and Korea - and how this might eventually transform the country's national politics and foreign policies.
Trends in Pro-China Sentiment in Japan
Recent polls suggest that the younger Japanese generation (18-29 years) exhibits a markedly higher pro-China outlook (42%) than those in their 40s (25%) and those aged 60 and above (13%). Given the current trend, it's anticipated that the national politics may swing more favorably towards China when this younger generation turns 50 – roughly around the period of 2040-2050.
This pro-China inclination might get further fueled by a surge in the popularity of Chinese films, music, and higher education among Japanese teenagers in the coming decades. However, it's worthy to note that over the next 2 decades, the foreign policy is likely to remain anti-China.
International Relations between Japan and China
Even in the era of Japan's next leaders, who could be from the Tamaki/Yoshimura generation of emerging minority parties, I predict that the anti-China narrative may persist, albeit in a rational way. The impact of China's soft power is expected to be evident in Japan's next decade and may begin to influence survey results by the 2030s.
Japan-U.S. Relations: A Comparison
Interestingly, even among America's youth, pro-China sentiment is relatively low at 22%. This similarity in outlook between Japanese and Americans aged between 30-60 is likely to drive a common foreign policy between the two countries in the foreseeable futrue. The 2 might diverge from 2040s, where Japan starts implementing favorable policy towards China with the new generation.
The Attitude Towards Korea
In contrast, the young Japanese generation holds a much more favorable attitude towards Korea with 57% of 20-29 year-olds viewing this neighboring country positively. This implies a definite trend towards a ever increasing pro-Korea policy in the foreseeable future from 2020-2060.
A Shift in Popularity of The West
It's worth noting when one country becomes popular, another loses popularity.
As the popularity of China and Korea appears set to rise among Japanese youth, a corresponding decline may be noted in the popularity of Europe namely UK, France and Germany, given that U.S. remains popular in Japan. This would inevitably reshape Japan's international relations and its social and cultural landscape.
Conclusion
These trends among the younger generations imply a significant shift in Japan's political and cultural landscape in the coming decades. Understanding these undercurrents can offer valuable insights for businesses, policy-makers and social commentators alike. Keep an eye on this space as we continue to track and analyze these intriguing shifts.