The Changing Tide of Global Technology and Economy
This discussion navigates the intersecting domains of technology, global economics, policy, infrastructure, societal flux, and history. Countries across the globe, particularly within Europe, Canada, and even in the technology-centric Japan, are compared, covering various sectors, from technology to the environment.
Europe & Canada: An Anti-Technology Movement?
Technological advancement in Europe and Canada can't be disregarded. They have nuclear energy, efficient passport control, and even advancements in transportation technology like electric scooters. Yet, some suggest that an anti-technology movement could be brewing. Perhaps it may be more accurate to say there's an emphasis on privacy, environmental sustainability, and social cohesion among different racial groups.
Japan: The Unsung Hero in R&D
Often overlooked, Japan channels significant investments into its R&D sector. Sectors like medical, imaging, robotics, and gaming (example: Capcom, Konami) continuously show promise. Over time, this investment's influence on their technological culture should become more evident.
The Uncertain Position of European Countries
Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, and Belgium are still sustaining high levels of technological and economic development when it comes to R&D spending (each over 3% of their GDP). On the other hand, countries like the UK, France, Canada, and Italy may seem less active, but they periodically produce breakthroughs like ARM or Stable Diffusion from the UK.
Europe Under Pressure
So what's next for Europe? Could Germany maintain its status as the European hub for R&D in the face of China's rising influence? While it navigates crucial issues such as migration and environmentalism, what's clear is that excessive protectionism observed by the recent EV subsidy to combat Chinese cars could lead to an eventual economic collapse in the span of 10-30 years all while maintaing economic stagnation.
A Lesson From Argentina's Economic History
Historic examples like Argentina, which dramatically grew and then declined in the 20th century, provide lessons in economic dynamics. Argentina was a leading economy in the early 1900s but later showed signs of stagnation, partially due to political instability, leading to a decline in its development. That started in 1930's import subsidy, which maintained relatively high GDP per capita while stagnant until 1960, while other regions like Japan and Italy went through rapid growth from 1960-1990 leaving behind Argentina completely. South America as a region never recovered from the level fo 1930 world stage glory up til today.
Casting Doubt on the Future Standing of Western Economies- The 2020 Turning Point:
Drawing a parallel between Argentina's fall and the relative stagnation of developed countries since the 1980s, the importance of remaining competitive on the global stage is evident. As new contenders potentially emerge through future industrial revolutions, even the economies of today's wealthiest nations could become comparative underdogs.
Import subsidy that began by Trump which EU followed and still pursuing this day mark the beginning of political instability and economic stagnation all the way from 2020 til 2050. While it'll keep attracting migrants with relatively high GDP per capita internationally, it'll continue to lose as a hub for stability and technological innovation. From 2050, it'll be evident to the world, it's no longer the glory hub. while other regions start growing beyond European level of per capita wealth: which will likely be China.
Predicting the Collapse of the European Union by 2033
By 2033, if the EU fails to maintain competitiveness and France, Belgium, Germany, and other member states continue with the same economic patterns, the union might face an imminent collapse driven by rising debt and economic stagnation. State involvement in industrial policy will increase; which we've seen in the past decade with their green policy will either accelerate, or be flipped back to nationalism driven protectionism style manufacturing.
The first observation of depreciation will be evident in UK as their political instability was triggered with Brexit while foreign debt level still on the rise. As they don't have EU subsidy unlike France, they might . As we saw from Birmingham bankruptcy last week, their debt level might be at serious stage so that they can no longer raise national debt level, which pushes them to print money to fund the govenrment, which in turn depreciates the Ponds. That depreciation has been happening ever since they've lost the global reserve currency status in 1945. That declining trend seems to be happening.
Learning from History: Japan's Accelerated Growth
Japan is reaching the end of meeting the inflation goal. They've faced deflationary pressure since 2000. That was triggered by American pressure for rapid appreciation of the currency, as well as debt restructuring from the 50 years of post war growth. That's been almost paid off evident from the rising salary after decades of anticipation.
They have multiple growth strategy in hand from investment into JAXA (space agency), university fund, startup investment initiative to increase VC money 10x the next 5 years. That alone is the same as EU or any other government. But they also just signed TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) in 2016, which US pulled out of in favor of protectionisim, and RCEP, a massive trade zone in East Asia, which was signed in 2020. From the two large trade policies, it is evident Japan is opening up rather than looking inwards into protectionism.
The investment made today in 2023 will start paying off in 2030, and from 2030-2060, Japan will be evident that it's a great economic powerhouse from the begining of debt cycle, similar to that of 1960-1990. That timeline coincides with the opening of maglev in 2028, the fastest train in the world, and IR casino in Osaka in 2029. The only differnece this time is they'll be the frontier of the next industrial revolution with energy, automation, space, and digital currency.
Japan's level of GDP per capita once passed that of Europe in 2000. It'll surpass again from 2035-2070.
Are we Witnessing a Shift of Power to the East?
Chinese economic stagnation had been the buzz recently. Until 2030 or 2035, it seems developing countries will take over. Countries like India/Brazil/Turkey/Saudi will be openly criticize the west and show regional ambition without holding back. Other alternatives would be Taiwan/South Korea/Singapore/Switzerland for growth.
Despite the continued political instability, Western countries will remain popular for many for their stagnant yet high income standard.
The seemingly unstoppable growth of China and the possible resurgence of Japan may signal a significant shift of global power to the East, presenting a dramatic challenge to the Western nations' economic dominance. Eastern economies might eventually overshadow western counterparts, comparable to the way Taiwan currently competes with Japan. Amid these shifting dynamics, Western economies should reevaluate their approach to competitiveness on the global stage.
In all these potential scenarios, it's evident that global power dynamics are not static—continuously molded by economics, political factors, and, of course, technology. This evolution requires adaptability, strategic policy-making, and an understanding of complex global interrelations. Ultimately, the countries ready to adapt and continually innovate will always stand strong in the face of global changes.