Emerging economies, nuclear power and potential military conflicts. A slew of factors are at play, which could potentially restructure the current political and economic power dynamics on the world stage. This blog post aims to dissect, analyze and forecast these trends for the next thirty years, primarily putting the spotlight on predicting the future for Japan, China, US, Europe and upcoming contenders.

US / Europe – Still a Powerhouse?

The West, primarily US and Europe, will remain considerable players on the global stage till 2050, with factors such as politics pushed to the side. They have the advantage of being well-established economies, which plays out in their favour in the power dynamics.

Japan – Rising Star or Underrated Contender?

While it's more than likely that China will find its place in the global world order by 2040-2120, its position amongst the extreme powerhouses isn't as clear. With contenders like India in the lead and Turkey, Saudi, Iran or Brazil as possible strong players, China isn't necessarily a single winner. The world always has a place for 3-5 powers.

UK / France – On the Defensive

The period from 2030 to 2040 could see an increased mobilization of military assets from the UK and France. Though they have lost ground in the economic battles of 2000 to 2020, they may lean into their political strength through entities like the EU and former colonial relations. The recent trade bloc protectionism among EU territories is such example.

Potential Power Shifts – Former Colonies Rising

The coming years are more than likely to witness ex-colonies revolting. From Niger to Rwanda to India, there seems to be an impending open revolt, not necessarily driven by economic might, but by a desire to assert sovereignty and power.

US – From Frustration to Brutal Diplomacy

US frustrations that are currently directed towards China could soon encompass the rest of the world, come the 2030s. India starts having confrontation in 2030s as their current projected economic timeline is similar to China in 2010. And Brazil is soon to follow. That'll make US increaasingly paranoid and give up all efforts of maintaing world leader.

Moreover, the US might revise its approach to leverage alliance assets more brutally, much like Germany being forced to buy gas today, without resorting to brute force. Saudi Arabia seemed to be off the hook, and East Asia might be so too as the US attention is still aimed at Europe/Russia in 2023.

Japan – Striking Out on Its Own

By the mid-2030s, the world power dynamics should be diverse enough for Japan to slowly drift away from the US, and not be solely reliant on China. This period will likely witness more conflicts globally from North America to Europe, making certain regions safe. Those regions I reckon would be East Asia and Middle East.

Revisiting the Concept of the US-China War

The notion of the US and China being on the brink of war was established in 2015. Despite early predictions of China's rise to superpower status, the reality is more nuanced.

From 2030, US will forego all efforts into maintaining world order as the rise of emerging non-China economies becomes inevitable, and become committed on the domestic order.

Trading Technology – Power for Profit

The coming three decades could see western powers like the US, France, and UK, trading sophisticated technology in areas such as nuclear power, space, and AI. This technology could be headed for East Asia, Middle East or India, further shifting power dynamics.

This came evident with this year's trade agreement with Australia-US deal on nuclear submarine. Japan-UK also started co-development of fighter jet program where traditionally UK had a lead in the technology.

This is not to mention the North Korea recent assistant to Russia in exchange of their space technology.

In conclusion, while it's impossible to accurately predict what the future holds, these educated predictions illuminate possible power shifts and trends to watch.